Tropical cyclones and global climate change: A post-IPCC assessment. A statistical analysis of tropical cyclone intensity. Dissipative heating and hurricane intensity.

The recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity: Causes and implications. Part I: El Niño and 30 mb quasi-biennial oscillation influences. La Niña, El Niño, and Atlantic hurricane damages in the United States. The contribution of tropical cyclones to the oceans' meridional heat transport. Hurricane vulnerability in Latin America and the Caribbean: Normalized damage and loss potentials. Long-term trends and interannual variability in tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific.

Downward trends in the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes during the past five decades. Impact of CO2-induced warming on simulated hurricane intensity and precipitation: Sensitivity to the choice of climate model and convective parameterization. The dependence of hurricane intensity on climate. My results suggest that future warming may lead to an upward trend in tropical cyclone destructive potential, and-taking into account an increasing coastal population-a substantial increase in hurricane-related losses in the twenty-first century.Įmanuel, K. I find that the record of net hurricane power dissipation is highly correlated with tropical sea surface temperature, reflecting well-documented climate signals, including multi-decadal oscillations in the North Atlantic and North Pacific, and global warming.

This trend is due to both longer storm lifetimes and greater storm intensities. Here I define an index of the potential destructiveness of hurricanes based on the total dissipation of power, integrated over the lifetime of the cyclone, and show that this index has increased markedly since the mid-1970s.

Theory 1 and modelling 2 predict that hurricane intensity should increase with increasing global mean temperatures, but work on the detection of trends in hurricane activity has focused mostly on their frequency 3, 4 and shows no trend.

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